Votes Cast, Bihar Awaits Counting, Election Result In BJP-JDU Vs RJD Battle

1. NDTV’s traditional ‘poll of exit polls’ indicated an easy win for the NDA, which should pick up 146 of 243 seats, 24 over the majority mark. The opposition Mahagathbandhan is expected to get only 92 – a far cry from 110 in the last election. And poll strategist Prashant Kishor‘s Jan Suraaj is likely to flop on its electoral debut, winning just one seat.
2. Each of the 13 exit polls studied by NDTV predicted a win for the Bharatiya Janata Party and Janata Dal United alliance. The most emphatic are Today’s Chanakya and CNX; each believes the BJP-JDU will win 150+ seats and the RJD-Congress less than 90.
3. Axis My India, meanwhile, went (almost) the other way. The BJP-JDU will still win, its numbers said, but possibly by as few as three seats. Vote Vibe and Chanakya Strategies also predicted close contests, but with the BJP-JDU winning each time.
4. The predictions have thrown up some interesting scenarios, including one where the BJP and JDU win but Tejashwi Yadav is the preferred chief ministerial option. An exit poll by Peoples Pulse said the BJP-JDU will get 133-159 seats and the opposition less than 101, but asked about who could replace Nitish Kumar, the choice was Tejashwi Yadav.
5. Another interesting fallout could be the reversal of the BJP and JDU’s roles. In 2020, the BJP upset the odds to win more seats than the JDU and become the ‘big brother’. That allowed it to dictate terms to the JDU leader. Status quo could be restored after this poll; Matrize said the JDU could win between two and 10 seats more than the BJP.
6. And a third potentially big storyline is the BJP replacing the RJD as the single-largest party. The RJD won 75 seats in 2020, one more than the BJP, but finished 12 short of victory. This time exit polls place the BJP as the big winner with 67-70 seats to 56-69.
7. The focus will also be on voter trends. Women, for example, traditionally choose Nitish Kumar, and the Yadavs the RJD. That seems to have held. Axis My India indicated 45 per cent of women voters chose the NDA and 90 per cent of Yadavs, the Mahagathbandhan. The opposition alliance is also expected to pick up close to 80 per cent of Muslim votes.
8. Bihar voted November 6 and 11 in a two-phase election that followed days of sniping between the two alliances and other key figures, including Kishor, who could still play a key role by cutting vote shares; AIMIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi; and Tejashwi Yadav’s estranged brother, Tej Pratap Yadav, who adds a ‘brother vs brother’ subtext to this poll.
9. Meanwhile, much of the post-poll debate has been on voter turnout. Nearly 67 per cent of eligible voters cast their votes. Conventional wisdom suggests a high turnout is bad news for the incumbent. And a Bihar quirk – three past governments have fallen after voter turnout spiked by five per cent – could also cause some unease among the BJP-JDU.
10. But the ruling alliance is staying positive. The BJP’s state unit ordered 500kg of laddus – with pictures of the PM and Nitish Kumar – and five lakh rasgullas and gulab jamuns. The opposition, though, is not giving up; Tejashwi Yadav told reporters the high voter turnout is a “vote for change” and said he remains confident the Mahagathbandhan will win.

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