Vikram Sood, one of India’s greatest spymasters who has spent his career in the dark corridors of cloak-and-dagger, gave some cold, hard insight into the realities of today’s world and also suggested how India should play the long game.
An operative who went on to head the Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW) before he retired in 2003 after 31 years of service, Sood shared his assessments of the dynamics that are unfolding in interactions among nations today – the US, China, Russia, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and of course, India.
The Chinese Are Watching
In the eyes of China, the US under Trump appears to be weakening and “that leaves you [India] in a very precarious situation,” Sood said.
“Because not that America was our greatest friend, but China was the country that never hid its disdain or distrust of us. They are on the border; they can create trouble for us. So that way, they are the instant threat. Americans are the distant threat, in a manner of speaking, that they can make your lives uncomfortable,” the former spymaster who just published his book Great Power Games told NDTV.
To a question on what exactly is the China threat considering India and China are attempting a rapprochement – border trade increased, direct flights have resumed – Sood said, “We have a border that has not been demarcated. It is something that both sides can play up.”
Sood took into account other nations in determining the China threat in his calculations which he had perfected in his long career.
“You have to have some kind of relationship with the guy who matters. Pakistan is a nuisance; we have to handle it differently. But this person [China] can cause you harm. Let’s measure who can cause you the biggest harm.
“Among the top two-three, four, five countries, America is one, the Chinese are one. Russians maybe, but they won’t. That’s my assessment. Pakistan will needle you. But China is the one that can cause harm. The other two we must watch carefully all the time,” Sood said.
‘Study The US’
He suggested India should study the US with a serious intent.
“We haven’t studied the US properly. We have studied the US cursorily, on the surface. We haven’t read the entire history. I get that feeling that we’re perfunctory about the whole thing. And it’s Time Magazine and Voice of America and NYT [that] keeps an idea,” the former R&AW chief said.
Trump’s steep tariff hike on India and other nations entered the conservation naturally. In Sood’s assessment, the US wants to assure itself it is in control, but it is also a “little bit scared” that it may slip into second or third place.
The tariffs, therefore, served as a signal to say the US is still numero uno.
“Hit hard before anybody reacts and then claim victory. But it has not worked to the extent it should have, and I feel it may have backfired because you raise tariffs, you raise your own prices also. You may cut off my product, but if it is not available in your country, then what do you offer in exchange? You haven’t got the manufacturing capability,” Sood said.
What added to the US’ desperation, Sood indicated, was the reality that Uncle Sam is no longer a manufacturing country; it’s just a goods and services industry.
Where does Pakistan fit in all this?
Pakistan’s Nuclear Blackmail
Sood said that first, the neighbouring country’s nuclear blackmail during Operation Sindoor was “like a child who has been boxed into a corner, then he comes around and says ‘I can do this to you, let me go.’ I don’t think there is a madman enough anywhere who will flick the [nuclear] button.”
And second, Pakistan as far as India is concerned, is not going to change, the former spymaster said as a matter of fact.
“It is jihad. Munir says they are the second caliphate. Pakistan is sitting in a place where the country was formed in the name of Islam. That is their mindset, so they aren’t going to change. They know that they cannot defeat us, but we’ll have the Pakistani problem all the time. We have to be prepared for Operation Sindoor, more of it,” Sood said.
Pakistan army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir had been to the US after Operation Sindoor. Sood said the US-Pakistan ties are superficial and are in a “temporary phase.”
“Both sides are looking for their own. Time goes and things will be back. They will be back to zero,” he added.
‘Gen Z’ And ‘Advisers’
While he wielded India’s hidden spear aimed at external forces, Sood indicated a link between some domestic issues with invisible hands, though he did not say in so many words.
“Some people are floating an idea that youngsters are fed up with their way of life and they want change. But they can see success only if they have an outside interloper who gives them advice and support. Then they can have a riot, they can have a squabble on the street corner today, tomorrow, anywhere in the country. To organise a riot and movement, it requires guidance and leadership,” Sood told NDTV, referring to the recent Nepal youth agitation that the media called “Gen Z protest”.
India And Taliban
To a question on India’s ties with Afghanistan since India does not stand for many of the things the Taliban stands for, the spymaster indicated all is fair in geopolitics.
“It’s a pursuit of self-interest. This is the time to squeeze Pakistan as they are giving us trouble all the time. Now we will do it this way. And if America can have that terrorist as their president in Syria, surely we can deal with the Taliban also,” Sood said.
More importantly, he addressed a controversial matter directly: “You can’t blame us that we’re dealing with somebody who treats women like this. That’s a pity. I wish they didn’t do it. But in my strategic interest, I need to have Afghanistan on my side and let them talk more and more about the fact their country runs up to the banks of the Indus. So it’s good for me. I’ll keep that going.”
Looking back on his career, he said the two most challenging situations were the Kargil war and the hijacking of the erstwhile Indian Airlines’ IC-814 in 1999.
Though experts have pointed at intelligence failure in Kargil, Sood said he “wouldn’t say it so strongly” because “you can’t expect perfect intelligence. But there were enough indicators that were there to say that something is going to happen. And about IC 814, I don’t think anyone knew.”